We live in the period of the most rapid, profound change in human history. Forces such as democratization and demography are converging with powerful technologies like artificial intelligence and quantum computing to create a New Reality in how we learn, work, live, and evolve. We shape the New Reality and determine the course of our lives by whether we enthusiastically lead and adapt or deny and resist. We can be pragmatically optimistic about this New Reality because the more rational case is that humanity’s best days are ahead, not past. Transitioning from our industrial age roots and mindsets to the New Reality requires bold, brave, adaptive leaders.
Change and increasing life complexity have always been part of humanity’s advances but have accelerated exponentially in the last few decades because of the converging change forces and technologies mentioned above. Everyone is busier and more anxious, trying to keep up. We miss things we should have caught because there is much more to remember and learn. A consequence of busyness is missing stuff we should have anticipated, prepared for, or avoided. The phenomenon affects government and business leaders as well, often with dire consequences. Examples of only the last twenty-five years include 9/11, the 2008 financial meltdown, and the COVID-19 pandemic. AI can help predict and avoid or mitigate such predictably unpredictable events.
The next miss is likely to be population decline and aging. Almost everyone, including most government and business leaders, underestimates the speed and consequences of this first-time-ever demographic inversion. Demographers have observed falling birthrates for over fifty years. Futurists and many in public policy circles have recognized the seriousness of falling birthrates and aging populations for over twenty-five years. Yet, no federal government official or mass media pundit has explained its consequences to the public or proposed any action.
Consider these unanswered questions:
- How will we keep our economies growing in declining populations?
- How do we keep things running as institutional and professional knowledge dies off?
- What if, in a few years, you call to schedule a car repair (now a marvel of integrated electronics and mechanics), update your will or trust, or schedule a meeting with your financial advisor or cardiologist and are told it will be six months before an appointment is possible?
At this moment, healthcare is confronting the effects of a declining and aging population. Leaders in other industries would be wise to learn from the example. Demand for healthcare services is increasing rapidly as the population ages while the number of clinicians and healthcare workers is declining. We are at least a million nurses short, lack two million non-clinical health aides and community health workers, and most medical specialties are losing professionals faster than new ones can be trained. We face the stark reality that we cannot care for an aging population as we do today, and it will get worse before it gets better. Addressing these shortages requires dramatically increasing existing healthcare professional productivity and accelerating new professional training using AI, robotics, virtual reality, and other techniques.
How healthcare professional shortages burst onto the scene should be instructive to other industries because their day is coming. A small percentage of the population is attracted to healthcare careers and possess the ability and resilience required. Clinicians undergo rigorous academic training and years of practice to become proficient. If they make it through, the work is physically, psychologically, and emotionally demanding, with long hours and quality-of-life sacrifices. Many clinicians choose administrative roles in mid-career or retire to improve quality of life. Many young people today refuse to make these sacrifices and opt for careers requiring fewer years and less debt. Adding to the problem, medical schools and universities constrained supply for many years. COVID-19 and its policy blunders and unpreparedness burned out tens of thousands of medical professionals.
The healthcare labor crisis will worsen quickly unless healthcare leadership takes action to shorten the time to educate, train, achieve proficiency, and increase healthcare professional productivity. Using AI and other technologies, clinicians can offload tasks below their skill level. Every clinician can function equal to the best in their profession. Best practices and the latest knowledge can become the norm instead of the exception. Action is also needed with patients. Healthcare professionals are overworked partly because patient interaction is inefficient. Massive gains are to be had, especially for patients with chronic and catastrophic conditions. Information flows can be streamlined between patients and providers. A full range of wearables, home testing, and real-time home diagnostics are emerging. Patients can be empowered to perform self-care, improve their health, and detect and alert providers of changes in their health status before it becomes a crisis.
Artificial intelligence and robotics are personalization, precision, and prediction tools that can remake health and healthcare as we know it. However, solutions require bold leadership by health systems, physician groups, health plans, and governments to install, prove, and improve these technologies meaningfully in 2025. We will be sunk if solutions become next year’s projects or get stuck in the CIO work queue. Every health leader’s top priority must be provider training, productivity, and patient empowerment.
Other industries should closely watch healthcare. Almost all have mission-critical professionals with characteristics similar to those of healthcare professionals. Examples include:
- Complex areas of law, such as estate law.
- Financial and insurance specialties such as actuaries and financial planners.
- Highly skilled persons working at the intersection of automation and mechanics.
Population decline and the desire for a better quality of life are shrinking the pool of people capable and willing to pay the price to be proficient professionals in every industry. If the professionals’ customers are disproportionately older, the profession will experience a double whammy of fewer professionals and increasing workload and complexity. We must redesign jobs to be more productive without people working harder, and it’s possible with AI augmentation.
Get the picture? Can we be pragmatically optimistic about American leadership’s response to population decline and aging? It rests on actions by leaders of a few hundred organizations with the muscle to launch meaningful AI solutions in pressing clinical specialties and patient categories in 2025. Leaders in industries not yet feeling severe professional shortages must use this time to get ahead by identifying the jobs where professional shortages will hit first and hardest and build AI productivity solutions to offset declines. Will leaders step up? I don’t know.
Suppose they do. In a few short years, every professional we depend on as consumers will be a top performer in their field, trained faster, augmented, and extended by artificial intelligence or robotics, serving more customers better with more time for each of us. They will not waste their precious training and skills on sub-professional tasks. They will always be up to date with the latest innovations in their professions, coached by their industry’s best through AI, and interact with customers in ways nonexistent before 2025. Imagine this level of performance by all the people you depend upon: your financial planner, family and estate attorneys, police and firefighters, fitness trainers, doctors, nurse practitioners, nurses, and others involved in your family’s care. This level of performance is required to address declining birth rates and an aging population. In this scenario, we thrive. If America’s leadership is asleep at the wheel, excessively cautious, or holds out to retire rather than lead, deteriorating economies and delayed access to essential services are our future. I’m betting on America’s leaders. What a time to be alive!
